Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market could experience a significant breakout if established patterns hold, according to analyst Cole Garner. Garner suggests that Bitcoin is poised for a “full bull” price phase, and multiple factors point toward an optimistic outlook for the market.
Despite Bitcoin’s current price stagnation, some analysts believe that the ongoing cycle resembles previous ones and that major upside potential exists. Garner highlights the behavior of the largest-volume Bitcoin investors, commonly referred to as whales, as a key reason for this optimism. He emphasizes that whale accumulation trends have historically been a driving force behind bull markets.
Garner references research by analytics firm Jarvis Labs, which identified an ongoing “multi-month buying frenzy” among whales. This activity isn’t limited to whales alone; smaller investors, often called fish, have also been increasing their Bitcoin exposure.
Another technical analyst known as CryptoCon has labeled whales as having “diamond hands,” noting their holding behavior during the current cycle. This stands in contrast to the previous cycle, where relentless whale selling was a notable feature.
The Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio on major exchange Bitfinex is another indicator Garner points to. This ratio has historically preceded major bull runs in Bitcoin’s history. Garner asserts that Bitfinex, often considered a hub for smart money, exerts a significant influence on short-to-medium term price action.
However, the timing of a potential bullish breakout remains uncertain. Garner suggests that a launch in the third quarter (Q3) is plausible, but he acknowledges the influence of summer seasonality as a counter-argument.
To invalidate the bullish outlook, Garner indicates that Bitcoin would need to record a weekly close below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which is currently around $27,235 according to TradingView data.
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, these factors and trends are shaping the potential for Bitcoin’s price movement in the near future.